CLIMATE AND EARTH
SYSTEM SCIENCES
Photo: UHH/Denstorf
23 March 2023
Photo: private
Kilian's thesis "The Farmer - Herder dynamics in the Sahel under climate change. An Agent-based modelling approach on conflict and cooperation" was supervised by Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran and Dr. Juan Miguel Rodríguez López.
He investigated how climate change and population growth influence the dynamics of conflict and cooperation between farmers and herders in the Sahel. Due to a lack in modelling studies regarding this matter he did so by creating an agent-based model, with which he investigated three climate scenarios over the course of a 20 year period. The results show that the number of herders has a disproportionally large influence on the occurrence of conflicts and cooperations. Further, he found that a dryer climate favours farmers while a more humid climate favours herders. He also discusses that data required for an agent-based model about these dynamics is lacking in detail and that more specific data collection is needed for agent-based modelling to unfold its full potential.
Kilian did his thesis in the Climate Change and Security (CLISEC) group at the University of Hamburg where he also worked as a student assistant.