Yuqian Guo Successfully Defended Her Master's Thesis

10 October 2025

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Yuqian Guo has completed her master’s thesis, “How do heavy rainfall and antecedent wetness change in a warmer climate over Europe?”, under the supervision of Dr. Benjamin Poschlod and Prof. Dr. Jana Sillmann.

The objective of her study is to investigate future changes in compound flooding events driven by antecedent wetness and heavy rainfall across Europe. Four representative European catchments were analyzed. The study employs the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5-Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE), which provides 50 high-resolution (0.11°, ~12 km) simulations from 1955 to 2099 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. Using bivariate kernel density estimation and extreme value statistics, univariate and joint changes in antecedent wetness and daily precipitation are analyzed across different global warming levels (GWLs). Additionally, three historical compound flooding events are examined to assess real-world implications.

The results reveal pronounced spatial and seasonal variability in both univariate and bivariate return levels. Most catchments are projected to experience stronger compound extremes under warmer climates, while some coastal regions show decreases. Under a 3 °C GWL, the Drammen River catchment shows increases of 6.39% and 8.33% in precipitation and antecedent wetness return levels, respectively, whereas the Croatian coastal catchment shows decreases of about 8.9%. Historical flood events exhibit shorter joint return periods under warmer conditions, highlighting the growing flood risk and the need for adaptive water management strategies.

Following the successful completion of the MICSS program Yuqian will pursue a PhD position at the GFZ in Potsdam. Her aims to develop and evaluate a gravity-based wetness index using GRACE data to monitor, indicate, and forecast global flood events under different generation mechanisms and environmental conditions.